Advocates for Evidence-Based Health Policy Speakers
Decision 2014
The 2014 midterm Elections will be held on Tuesday, November 4th, 2014. This may be news to many. Only 52% of the public state that they are paying attention to the election and if previous midterms are any indication fewer than half of American adults are expected to vote. Forecasters predict that the results of this election will be very close with most expecting Republicans to maintain control of the House of Representatives while the fate of the Senate remains uncertain. Fourteen states are expected to be the major determinants in the fight for Senate control – Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia.
Source: Twitter / @HHSgov
Healthcare ranks third in issues voters considered important in influencing their votes in the upcoming midterm elections. Most Democratic candidates hold positions in favor of the Affordable Care Act whereas most Republicans oppose it. This sentiment is echoed in these battleground states with only 40% supporting the ACA in Colorado, 38% in North Carolina, 37% in New Hampshire, 35% in Kentucky, 34% in Louisiana and 29% in Arkansas. In this study, the authors analyzed 27 public opinions polls by 14 different organizations to examine the importance of the ACA in this election and the potential impact the election could have on the implementation of the ACA.
Even though major changes have occurred in the American healthcare landscape since the enactment of the ACA in 2010, public approval of the act has not increased; 42% approved of the ACA in 2010 and now 40% in 2014. Even though 56% of respondents stated that the ACA had no direct impact on their family, many others (27%) believe it has had a negative impact and only 14% believe the ACA has helped. Overall 45% believe the ACA has had mostly a negative effect on the country in contrast to only 33% believing it has had a mostly positive effect.
Since 2007 public support for the opinion that the federal government has a responsibility to ensure all Americans have health insurance declined from 64% to 47% as has trust that the federal government has the capability to handle domestic affairs such as healthcare, which has declined from 51% in 2012 to 40% in 2014. When considering only likely voters, 41% support federal universal health care coverage; fifty-six percent do not believe it is the federal government’s responsibility to ensure all Americans have health coverage.
When asked which issue within healthcare was the dominant one, 48% felt the ACA (Obamacare) was most important followed by Medicare (25%) and Medicaid (14%). Support for the ACA falls along party lines. Independents show a slight trend against the ACA although not a clear majority.
While the ACA realistically cannot be repealed entirely while President Obama remains in office, the results of the 2014 Midterm elections this November could have a major impact on implementation of its provisions. A Republican majority could lead to major cuts in federal support while a Democratic majority may lead to speedier implementation.
commentary by Vidya Eswaran
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