Advocates for Evidence-Based Health Policy Speakers
Liberalization of Concealed Carry Laws
In this study, Hamill, et. al. investigated the impact of the liberalization of concealed carry legislation between 1986 and 2015 and the resultant impact on rates of homicide and other violent crimes. Based on the ease with which a concealed-carry license might be attained, each year’s legislation was categorized on a scale including “no carry,” “may issue,” “shall issue,” and “unrestricted carry.” The study found that there was no significant association between shifts from restrictive (“no carry” and “may issue”) to nonrestrictive (“shall issue” and “unrestricted carry”) on violent crime and other public health indicators, even when adjusting for unemployment and poverty.
The article argues that not only is the liberalization of gun laws safe, but also that “many Americans feel that gun ownership enhances their safety.” The article discusses how the most recent analysis of mass shooting events found that in 10% of incidents, civilians with concealed carry permits were successful in stopping the shooting and preventing further injuries and loss of life. However, the authors also acknowledge that the Violence Policy Center, which maintains a list of “concealed carry killers,” found that in the time period between 2007 and 2017, there were more than 1000 non-self-defense deaths involving individuals who had obtained concealed carry permits. When these two statistics are juxtaposed, several questions come to mind: do the lives saved by the concealed-carry permit holders in 10% of mass shootings outnumber the 1000 or so non-self-defense deaths committed by those who possess concealed carry permits? Furthermore, is there any possibility that the guns used in the mass shootings were obtained through the same channels by which concealed-carry permit holders obtain their firearms? The methods of this study are transparent, and it is fair to draw the conclusion that the liberalization of gun laws has not exacerbated rates of homicide or violent crime. However, the inverse is not necessarily true; if gun legislation were to “de-liberalize” and become even more conservative than it was in 1986, is it possible that perhaps rates of homicide and/or violent crime would decrease?
This Policy Prescriptions® review is written by Anjay Batra as part of our collaboration with the Health Policy Journal Club at Baylor College of Medicine where he is a medical student.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years, public opinion and state level legislation regarding the concealed-carry of firearms have shifted dramatically. Previous studies of potential effects have yielded mixed results, making policy recommendations difficult. We investigated whether liberalization of state level concealed-carry legislation was associated with a change in the rates of homicide or other violent crime.
STUDY DESIGN: Data on violent crime and homicide rates were collected from the US Department of Justice Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) over 30 years, from 1986 to 2015. State level concealed-carry legislation was evaluated each study year on a scale including “no carry,” “may issue,” “shall issue,” and “unrestricted carry.” Data were analyzed using general multiple linear regression models with the log event rate as the dependent variable, and an autoregressive correlation structure was assumed with generalized estimating equation (GEE) estimates for standard errors.
RESULTS: During the study period, all states moved to adopt some form of concealed-carry legislation, with a trend toward less restrictive legislation. After adjusting for state and year, there was no significant association between shifts from restrictive to nonrestrictive carry legislation on violent crime and public health indicators. Adjusting further for poverty and unemployment did not significantly influence the results.
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated no statistically significant association between the liberalization of state level firearm carry legislation over the last 30 years and the rates of homicides or other violent crime. Policy efforts aimed at injury prevention and the reduction of firearm-related violence should likely investigate other targets for potential intervention.
PMID: 30359832
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