Questioning Universal Background Checks

In the United States, the issue of gun control has taken center stage time and again. While some view gun control measures as a violation of 2nd Amendment Constitutional rights, anger and frustration surrounding American gun laws re-emerge in the wake of every mass shooting. While policies have been largely stagnant, a 2018 Gallup poll found over half of Americans believed that laws covering the sale of firearms should be stricter than present statutes. Over 90% specifically believed that universal background checks would be the best way to prevent mass-shootings in schools. However, the poll’s results also suggested widespread general disapproval of gun control measures.

This February, the U.S. House introduced H.R. 8, the first major gun control law in decades to require background checks for all gun purchases including at gun shows and online. 

A study by researchers at UC Davis however, has yielded results that may discourage premature celebration by those in favor of this legislation. The study evaluated the impact of comprehensive background check and misdemeanor violence prohibition policies implemented in California in 1991. Policy effects were measured by comparing rates of gun violence in California from 1991 to 2001 against a synthetic control group that represented the alternative outcome—rates of gun violence had California not implemented the laws. Investigators found no significant difference between groups and concluded that California’s 1991 policy changes resulted in no net change in the firearm homicide rate across 10 years.

The researchers propose that incomplete records and ineffective implementation of the comprehensive background checks and misdemeanor violence prohibition policies account in part for their ineffectiveness. If the intention of lawmakers today is to reduce firearm related homicide, this policy recently put forth may not be enough. An effective background check policy requires complete records. The experience of other states supports this notion. In Colorado, Delaware and Washington, complete background checks were implemented for gun control measures, but only Delaware saw an overall increase in background checks.

The proposal of H.B. 8 alone represents a potential inflection point in an evolving conversation about gun control. However, “common sense measures” demand oversight, attention to detail, and the support of law enforcement in order to accomplish what they set out to achieve.

This Policy Prescriptions® review is written by Manasi Joshi as part of our collaboration with the Health Policy Journal Club at Baylor College of Medicine where she is a medical student.

Abstract

Purpose: In 1991, California implemented a law that mandated a background check for all firearm purchases with limited exceptions (comprehensive background check or CBC policy) and prohibited firearm purchase and possession for persons convicted within the past 10 years of certain violent crimes classified as misdemeanors (MVP policy). We evaluated the population effect of the simultaneous implementation of CBC and MVP policies in California on firearm homicide and suicide.

Methods: Quasi-experimental ecological study using the synthetic control group methodology. We included annual firearm and nonfirearm mortality data for California and 32 control states for 1981–2000, with secondary analyses up to 2005.

Results: The simultaneous implementation of CBC and MVP policies was not associated with a net change in the firearm homicide rate over the ensuing 10 years in California. The decrease in firearm suicides in California was similar to the decrease in nonfirearm suicides in that state. Results were robust across multiple model specifications and methods.

Conclusions: CBC and MVP policies were not associated with changes in firearm suicide or homicide. Incomplete and missing records for background checks, incomplete compliance and enforcement, and narrowly constructed prohibitions may be among the reasons for these null findings.

PMID: 30744830

Castillo-Carniglia, A, et al. Ann Epidemiol. 2019; 30: 50-56.